Show more

Every trade is scored on draft-capital asymmetry: we value each draft pick each side received using the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart (the standard chart NFL teams use to price picks), then take the difference between the two sides.

Picks whose exact slot wasn't known yet — future picks — are valued at the average for their round, discounted one round for each year out, the way teams discount future picks in real negotiations. Traded players aren't given a point value (no honest formula exists), so they're listed separately and every trade involving a player is flagged. Voided and forfeited picks don't count. We only ranked deals involving at least 800 points of draft capital (about one mid-first-round pick) to keep small swaps out.

What this measures is how one-sided the bet was, not who "won" the trade — in a star-for-picks deal, the side receiving the picks always wins the capital exchange by construction. That's the point: these are the biggest bets teams ever placed.

Two views: Biggest bets values picks as they were valued at trade time. How it landed re-values every pick at its actual draft slot — the same trade can look very different once the draft lottery plays out. Each entry links to the full trade tree.

Rankings recompute automatically on every site build from the trade archive. A career-value ranking (who actually got fleeced, measured by player outcomes) needs a player-outcome dataset we're still building — that's v2.

What is the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart?

It's the standard point system NFL teams use to price draft picks in trades, created by former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s. The #1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, declining non-linearly down the draft order. We use it because it reflects how teams actually valued picks at the time of each trade.

Why isn't the Herschel Walker trade #1?

Walker ranks #7 by ex-ante capital (2,494 points) but #2 by realized capital (4,913 points). The 1967 Fran Tarkenton trade tops both lists — Minnesota gave up far more draft capital for Tarkenton than Dallas gave up for Walker, measured at the time.

Why are players not given point values?

No honest formula exists for converting a veteran player into draft-chart points at trade time. Rather than invent values, we list the players involved and flag those trades. The ranking measures draft-capital asymmetry only.

What's the difference between "Biggest bets" and "How it landed"?

"Biggest bets" values each pick as teams valued it at trade time (future picks discounted). "How it landed" re-values every pick at its actual draft slot. The 1999 Ricky Williams trade is the classic divergence: a fair price at the time became a blowout when New Orleans collapsed and their 2000 first-rounder became #2 overall.

Why is the RG3 trade ranked where it is?

Washington gave up 2,890 points of draft capital for the #2 pick in 2012 — a massive ex-ante bet. But neither side got a star quarterback out of it, which is why a career-value ranking (v2) would treat it very differently. Capital measures the size of the bet, not who won.